Assessment
Commodity price trend assessment
A focused written view of near-term price direction for a named commodity, grounded in supply, demand, stocks, and curve structure.
Who it is for
Procurement leads, commodity traders, treasury teams, and producer sales desks who need a clear, independent read on where a price is likely to travel over the next one to three months — before a hedge window, tender, or inventory decision.
What you receive
- A written assessment (typically 8–14 pages) covering recent price behaviour, physical balances, inventory signals, freight or quality differentials where relevant, and forward curve context.
- An explicit directional view: firmer, softer, or range-bound, with the assumptions that would invalidate it.
- A sixty-minute review call with the analyst who wrote the brief.
- A one-page decision summary suitable for circulating to non-specialists on your team.
What is not included
We do not execute trades, place orders, or manage portfolios. We do not provide personal investment advice under the Financial Conduct Authority’s retail advice regime. The assessment is professional market commentary for commercial decision support.
How the work unfolds
- Scope call (30 minutes) — Confirm the commodity grade or contract, the horizon, and the decision the assessment must support.
- Evidence gathering — Exchange data, public stocks, crop or production reports, freight indicators, and any internal figures you choose to share under NDA.
- Draft assessment — Usually delivered within ten business days of a complete brief.
- Review call — Walk through the directional view, sensitivities, and remaining unknowns.
- Final issue — Minor revisions within five business days of the call, then the brief is closed.
Preparation
Please have a preferred contract or reference price (for example LME three-month copper, ICE gasoil, or a regional grain basis), the decision date, and any hard constraints such as storage limits or offtake commitments. If you use a specific quality or origin, say so early — differentials matter.
Constraints
Rush turnarounds under five business days are limited to a short-form note at a higher fee. Multi-commodity baskets require separate scopes or a sector outlook briefing. Assessments older than six weeks should not be treated as current without an update.
Fees and next step
Fees start at £2,800 for a single commodity with a standard horizon. Complex grades, dual-origin comparisons, or on-site workshops are quoted separately. Request this assessment with the commodity name and decision date, and we will confirm availability within two business days.